It'll Be Fantastic!

I'm flying up to Indiana this weekend to hang out with some of the guys I play fantasy football with. Our online draft is on Saturday, so a few of us will gather in my friend Austin's apartment for the draft while others make their picks from elsewhere (we'll have managers in New Jersey, Northern Indiana, Arizona, and Houston picking along with us). Some of you probably know guys who care about fantasy football more than anything else in their lives. It's hard to justify caring more about a silly game than your family, friends, health, job, dog, and responsibilities, but somehow I manage.

With 12 teams in our league, I rated the 24 players I like to go in the first two rounds this weekend:

1 - LT (Even if I only thought he'd do 75% of what he did last year, he's the insta #1 overall pick)

2 - Steven Jackson (Downside is small, upside is huge - I think he'll still be producing big numbers in the fantasy playoffs as the Rams try to squeak into the Wild Card)

3 - Frank Gore (I predict a breakout year for Gore that resembles Shaun Alexander ala 2005)

4 - Shaun Alexander (Age and injuries a concern here, but I expect him to be a stud)

5 - Larry Johnson (Workload decreasing, weakened offensive line, and possible training camp hold-out make his downside too scary to draft before 5th pick IMO)

tie 6 - Rudi Johnson and Joseph Addai (To me, Rudi is the guaranteed 1,300 yards, 12 TDs while Addai's expectation is 1,300 yards, 12 TDs, with an upside of 1,600 yards and 20 TDs, but a downside of total sophomore busto - who you pick depends on how much you want to GAMBOL!)

8 - Willie Parker (His 1,500 yards and 16 TDs of 2006 won't be repeated - therefore I think people are overvaluing him coming into this year's draft - I hope I'm not cornered into pulling the trigger on Willie as my #1 overall pick, if I am, I'm definitely selecting a RB in round 2 as well to supplement the weaknesses Willie brings to the position)

9 - Reggie Bush (The most athletic offensive player in the NFL will build upon his fantastic rookie season)

10 - Ronnie Brown (I don't get why everyone is valuing him behind Maurice Jones-Drew, who competes for carries, Brian Westbrook, who is injury prone, and Travis Henry, who will also share carries - Brown is the main guy in a run-first scheme - I'll be giddy if I wind up getting him late in the second round considering I'd happily pick him near the end of the first round)

11 - Laurence Maroney (No one is paying attention to the main running attraction in New England - I hope to scoop this guy up in the second round)

12 - Edgerrin James (Raise your hand if you knew this guy was younger than Shaun Alexander - I sure as hell didn't - new O-line in Arizona makes Edge a fine late first-round pick IMO)

13 - Clinton Portis (Obviously an injury concern but I like him more than Westbrook - Ideally he'd be the No. 2 back on whatever team drafts him)

14 - Willis McGahee (New team, fresh start, plenty of carries - finally McGahee is ready to shine - I find it mind boggling that people are rating Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, Cadillac Williams, and Duece McAllister ahead of Baltimore's go-to guy in a run-first scheme)

15 - Peyton Manning (His value over the 2nd-5th QBs really isn't that huge which is why, ideally, I wouldn't pick him until early 2nd round - that said, he might be too tempting to turn down with the 10th pick due to the guaranteed 30 TDs)

16 - Maurice Jones-Drew (With Taylor signed till 2010, Jones-Drew will still be sharing carries, only this year, defenses will be prepared for him)

17 - Steve Smith (Most explosive WR - Potential to be significantly better than 2nd best WR option)

18 - Duece McAllister (Saints offense will score a ton - There are enough TDs to go around)

19 - Brandon Jacobs (The main guy for the Giants now that Tiki is gone - Many are concerned that Droughens will steal playing time, but I predict Jacobs gets most of NYG's rushing TDs this year)

20 - Chad Johnson (With Chris Henry out of the picture, the Bengals will need more production from CJ and Houshmandzadeh, who I think is an absolute steal if you can get him in the 4th round)

21 - Marshawn Lynch (Could be Rookie of the Year for the Bills)

22 - Antonio Gates (Has significant advantage over the second best player at his position)

23 - Marvin Harrison (About as safe of a bet as anyone on the board)

24 - Torry Holt (Historically a stud WR and no reason to think he won't be in 07)

Guys who are highly rated by fantasy gurus that I'm staying away from entirely:

Brian Westbrook (His value is much higher in Points Per Reception leagues, which ours is not - Additionally he's injury prone and in an offense that never runs the ball)

Travis Henry (I've learned my lesson on Denver running backs - their system is too run-by-committee and pass-focused to value any one player highly - I'd only take Henry in the 4th round or later - He won't be available by then)

Thomas Jones (He was never that good in Chicago, numbers slip year to year, and Jets O-line leaves something to be desired - That said, I'd be fine with Jones as my No. 3 back if I could get him in the 5th round, but he'll be gone by then)

Jamal Lewis (He's old, he's behind a bad O-line, I see no reason to waste a pick on him unless it's a very late one)

Cedric Benson (I predict Benson flops big for the Bears)

Terrell Owens (His mental stability is too much of a liability to justify drafting him in the top 3 rounds, and he won't be available in the 4th)

Ahman Green (Coach Kubiak is a product of Denver's by-committee running mentality, Green is old, the Texans are bad - I'm not coming near this guy)

Cadillac Williams (He's on a bad team and had an absolute busto sophomore campaign - I see no reason to pick him until given reason to believe he's a player)

For my friends around Indianapolis (they are shrinking in number), we'll probably be going out Friday and Saturday; get in touch if you want to meet up.

To the other guys in the fantasy football league: get ready to be owned in the draft. I'm doing my homework.